I've been nervous about publishing this article ever since I started writing it.The reason for my anxiety will be familiar to anyone inside or outside the American government who has extensively researched Vladimir Putin and understands what the current atrocities in Europe represent: a terrifying new stage in the war against the West that Putin has been waging for twenty years, and that he's been winning for at least half that time in part because many in the West remain unaware they're at war.To write at length about Putin and his twenty-first-century infiltrations of Western democracies and their institutions—as I did in the "Proof" trilogy—is to run the risk of seeming not just alarmist but almost ludicrously paranoid. It's only the fact that all the warnings those who've written extensively about Putin have been giving for years are now coming to horrific fruition that it even feels safe to write candidly about what we're all now experiencing.Academics can debate whether our current period is in the umbra of the same Cold War that dominated the last century, or a new one; whether we're on the doorstep of World War III, or are already in it; whether the conditions on the ground in Europe today are most reflective of the eve of World War I or World War II; but what no one can deny is that what is happening in Ukraine is not merely a "news story" or even a spate of well-televised war crimes but a fundamental shifting of our age toward chaos.There is no need to rehash the core facts beyond this brief summary: Putin is a former KGB agent and current murderous autocrat who is almost certain to be a dictator over Russia until his death; he has repeatedly said that the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the twentieth century was the 1991 fall of the Communist Soviet Union; he seeks to reconstitute the land area of the Soviet Union by whatever means necessary and over however long a period of time is required, though he understands that this cannot be accomplished without the dissolution or destruction of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization defensive alliance (NATO) and possibly both the European Union and the United States; the post-Soviet government in Russia, including (indeed perhaps especially) Putin's KGB, began searching for ways to collapse American democracy through asymmetrical warfare from the moment the Soviet Union passed into history; and some significant portion of the current domestic political strife in the United States has been deliberately provoked by the Kremlin and its agents through acts of subterfuge, espionage, propaganda, and hacking that properly answer to the name war.Yesterday, a former high-ranking official in the Donald Trump administration, Miles Taylor, said that the current Trumpist-Putinist Republican Party is far and away the greatest national security threat America has faced in his lifetime. That he is correct is confirmed not just by the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trumpist irregulars or the fact that former president Trump—to please Putin and ensure his own future business opportunities in Russia—put every U.S. alliance and interest lying beyond our shores at risk, but the fact that America is now in a global conflict (call it the Cold War, World War III, or Second Cold War, as you like) at a time when Trump and Trumpism have deliberately put our body politic at a point of permanent fracture. That most Americans still do not understand what Putin is trying to do and the cost that will be exacted upon the United States as he seeks to do it means that the coming months and perhaps years will be the darkest and most fraught in a century. . . .[T]here are already significant signs that the war in Europe will destabilize Earth's international economy for the foreseeable future; the war has also shifted global alliances in such an extraordinary fashion and to such a dramatic degree that America's supposed allies in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will not speak to the President of the United States, and the United States has now sent emissaries to negotiate with our long-time enemies in Venezuela. . . . Thousands of civilians are now being killed in Ukraine because they lack air cover, and yet the United States has just declared that it has no appetite for aiding Ukraine in rebuilding its air force via MiG-29s from Poland.In short, we're in the earliest days of a sequence of global events whose end none can know but whose present is a darkness deeper than anyone younger than 85 has known. . . .This essay seeks to speak candidly . . . and to do so in terms that American media has so far eschewed—in part because it is habitually and temperamentally "present-oriented," and in part because it has missed the fact, as have most Americans, that our country is, sadly, already implicitly at war with Russia.While this may seem an inauspiciously hot-headed and alarmist start to what intends to be a sober essay on the very geopolitics that I wrote three national bestsellers about over the last forty months, understand that with the advent of the internet and the establishment of a global economy there was never a chance that World War III would look like World War II or World War I. The war we are in now is very much a twenty-first-century war, which doesn't mean that there are no conventional components to it—as the Ukrainians are learning right now, with devastating consequences—but that if we fail to appreciate the unconventional components of international warfare in this century we are dooming ourselves to defeat at the very moment that the inchoate and unconventional aggressions of our enemies have become conventional and dire.With all this said, here are ten truths that American media and American voters need to come to terms with immediately.
The Ten Hardest Truths About the War in Europe
(1) America is now in a world war. . . .
You probably think it's impossible to defend Putin's brutal, senseless war in Ukraine. And you're right. But Tucker Carlson is really trying! Let's take a look at last night's show. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/0mr4RcWq9n
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
Carlson opened w/claims about Biden “funding a number of secret bio labs in Ukraine” conducting “experiments on highly dangerous pathogens.” These claims, which have been pushed by Russian media, are false. The US has worked w/Ukrainian labs, but on normal public health research. pic.twitter.com/Zn4Y4aeByi
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
This was debunked by the Washington posthttps://t.co/WGOCOr53pB https://t.co/Phi9BfwAjo
— Molly Jong-Fast (@MollyJongFast) March 11, 2022
As the NYT explains, Carlson is conflating Ukrainian biodefense labs with biological weapons facilities. Ukraine has the former. It does not have the latter. https://t.co/jxXUMq5iCE
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
Carlson, no doubt aware of him flimsy his claims are, almost immediately moved the goalposts. His monologue culminated with insinuations that any sort of scientific research on deadly pathogens is inherently suspicious. pic.twitter.com/vcjvVAOZ1U
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
Tucker then brought on Glenn Greenwald, who he described as “an expert on detecting deception.” (lol) Glenn immediately echoed Carlson's distorted claims about the US government and biolabs in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/pCq62O0yi5
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
Greenwald's interview ended with him layering distortion upon distortion and suggesting the US is funding biolabs in Ukraine because it wants “to be provocative toward the Russians” -- a talking point also pushed by the Kremlin pic.twitter.com/ndDMOf6yDY
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
“Why Ukraine? Of all the countries to conduct this kind of research in.”
— Justin Ling (@Justin_Ling) March 11, 2022
The Biological Threat Reduction Program has run projects in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Ethiopia, Thailand, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kenya, Cambodia, Cameroon, Laos, Senegal... https://t.co/3vibBp9P1N
Carlson then pivoted to wrestling with strawmen who want the US to start world war 3 with Russia. But the only example of a pro-no fly zone elected official he cited was Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar. pic.twitter.com/ex0f9YLb31
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
One person calling for a no-fly zone immediately became “INCREASED CALLS FOR A NO-FLY ZONE.” Transparent dishonesty. pic.twitter.com/6NLNZ6ijJf
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
“It's not the only suffering in the world” -- Tucker Carlson on Ukraine pic.twitter.com/B382Y1iXVt
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
Carlson then accused Kamala Harris of “inciting” Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All of the above happened before the first commercial break. pic.twitter.com/NJ00qRachV
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
Later in the show, Carlson returned to the Ukraine topic, and insisted sanctions against Putin are bad because they're not deterring him and will just make him angry at the US pic.twitter.com/kXUUy08Dmt
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
maybe just don't brutally invade your neighbors for no reason -- you won't have to worry about sanctions then pic.twitter.com/NIvuhL87hZ
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
Note how Tucker Carlson never goes as far as to explicitly defend Putin -- he's anti-anti-Putin. But the effect is the same. The US antagonized Russia, incited the invasion, is going too far in responding to it, etc. Meanwhile, the suffering of the Ukrainian people is minimized.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
The most-watched cable news host in America, parroting Kremlin talking points to own the libs. It's no wonder Russian state TV loves him. https://t.co/5Y1NxPdnqR
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 11, 2022
On his show tonight, @chrislhayes does a great job of tackling the biolabs conspiracy theory. https://t.co/jjieo4SsWo
— Justin Ling (@Justin_Ling) March 12, 2022
Recall that Carlson's big conspiracy theory on Thurs was about the US govt provoking Russia by funding "secret bio labs" in Ukraine. Those claims were quickly debunked by a range of outlets, and surprise! "Biolabs" wasn't mentioned a single time on Friday. https://t.co/UUUJY9nGMr
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
Instead, Carlson began Friday by accusing *Biden* of declaring "total economic war on a sovereign country" --Russia. He framed this as though Biden did it for no reason, when in fact he was responding to Putin's brutal invasion of a neighboring country. https://t.co/J7po7tNX81
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
That flowed into a weird slippery slope argument where Carlson suggested *you* could be next
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
"How long until our leaders do something similar to their domestic enemies here in the US...& confiscate your bank account?"
(Don't invade Canada and you won't have to worry about it) pic.twitter.com/4SUD0tlcji
This somehow led to illuminati-style conspiracy mongering.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
"Each new crisis is carefully stage managed by Silicon Valley at the direction of the White House."
In short, Carlson's monologue was a firehose of flailing, incoherent conspiracy theories. pic.twitter.com/rK0TKi4f0h
A few minutes later, Carlson turned reality on its head by claiming *Putin* is the winner of the US ban on Russian energy -- and his viewers are the "biggest losers." They're the real victims here. pic.twitter.com/Uz4FaM6rKr
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
Carlson concluded his monologue by hyperbolically claiming "the Biden administration's response to the invasion of Ukraine is the single most damaging thing any American president has ever done to this country and to the world." Really? pic.twitter.com/jr3O3QlUAN
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
Later in the show, Carlson echoed Putin's talking points by questioning whether Ukraine is even a country at all, denigrating it as "a corrupt client state of the ruling class here." pic.twitter.com/BqyufOzkpp
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
"You can't mention Hunter's ties to Ukraine," says a guy devoting a segment to them on America's most-watched cable "news" show pic.twitter.com/5q3IEZuDNz
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
this led to a spirited defense of Russian disinformation pic.twitter.com/lSykCQmSLP
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
Carlson again stopped short of explicitly defending Putin, but he spent most of his show to undercutting reasons for US involvement. Biden is overreacting, hurting Americans, Ukraine isn't a country anyway, etc. Meanwhile, the suffering of Ukrainians is barely mentioned.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
About 3.5 million Americans each evening are being exposed to Carlson's brand of anti-anti-Putinism. You can see how people watching this stuff earnestly come away with the impression that *Biden* is doing more harm than the person actually responsible for waging war on Ukraine.
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 12, 2022
Wonder if the death of a Fox Cameraman has changed Tucker's Tune on Vlad ?
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